What Does Lake Erie’s Warm Water Temps Mean For Winter In Buffalo, New York

As we inch ever closer to winter in Western New York, several Buffalonians have been wondering exactly what is happening on the weather front. On Halloween, Thursday, October 31, 2024, Buffalo, New York, saw some extremely warm temperatures for the time of year.

In fact, Buffalo broke a record when it hit a high temperature of 78 degrees. The previous high was 73 degrees, which was set in 1971.

Those high temperatures have people thinking about another thing that will have a huge impact on our weather: Lake Erie. Buffalo Lake Effect Snow Machine, also known as an unfrozen Lake Erie, has seen several records set for warmth, and even now, as October comes to a close, people are worried that the warm lake waters will mean big trouble for us coming winter.

According to data collected by the National Weather Service, Lake Erie is a balmy 59 degrees, the second warmest it's been since October 31. If the lake continues to be warm like this, we may have to worry about our buddy Lake Effect Snow.

What Is Lake Effect Snow and How Does Lake Erie Cause It?

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Lake Effect Snow is caused when cold air, often originating from Canada, moves across the open waters of the Great Lakes.

As the cold air passes over the unfrozen and relatively warm waters of the Great Lakes, warmth and moisture are transferred into the lowest portion of the atmosphere. The air rises, clouds form and grow into narrow band that produces 2 to 3 inches of snow per hour or more.
-National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the National Weather Service

With a warm and unfrozen Lake Erie, the potential for lake effect snow dramatically increases, which often means lots of snow for Western and Central New York.

Those wet and heavy snows often wreak havoc all over the region. I know no one wants to deal with it, but here's hoping we get a blast of arctic air to help hurry the freezing of Lake Erie. This, of course, would be for the betterment of everyone this winter.